山雨欲來風滿樓 政熱經冷最堪憂

本港政制爭拗日漸白熱化,外部勢力高調介入更令爭論火上加油。社會政治化,經濟發展乏人關注。事實上,香港的真正危機在經濟,而非政改。

英美赤膊上陣,公然干預香港事務。儘管中央政府連日高調反制,但陳方安生與李柱銘等外部勢力代理人急不及待為英美干預辯護。政改爭拗不只是港府與反對派之爭,而是中央與外部勢力的惡鬥。政治動盪勢必波及經濟穩定,香港隨時有滅頂之災。

香港出口指數已跌破五十的盛衰分界線,反映企業對本港出口信心之不樂觀。美國即將退市及外圍經濟表現反覆,任何風吹草動,香港都難以獨善其身。萬一經濟崩圍,殺傷力將較金融風暴和金融海嘯更甚。

香港經濟結構薄弱,金融獨大,樓價高企,租金昂貴,物價飛升,營商環境日益困難。社會沉迷政爭,港府窮於應對,根本沒有能力對付經濟危機。香港最大危機是沒有危機感。上海等周邊城市全力發展經濟,香港卻陷入政治泥沼無法自拔,一旦危機來臨,即使實行普選又有何用?

A wind-filled house heralds a tempest: it is worrying that people only focus on politics and slight the economy

While the constitutional reform argument in Hong Kong is turning white-hot, the high-profile intervention of external powers now adds fuel to the fire. Nobody pays much attention to economic development as society is being politicized. In fact, Hong Kong's real crisis lies with the economy, not constitutional reform.

The UK and the US are blatantly intervening in the affairs of Hong Kong. In the past few days, the Central Government has unleashed conspicuous criticisms on their actions. But Anson Chan and Martin Lee, the agents of these external powers, are already impatiently countering with their defense of the two countries. The argument about constitutional reform is no longer just a row between the Hong Kong Government and its opposition, but all the more a fierce fight between the Central Government and external powers. Political unrest is doomed to destabilize the economy, likely drowning Hong Kong at any moment.

Hong Kong's index of export has fallen below 50, the dividing line between prosperity and decline, reflecting a lack of confidence by enterprises in the city's export. The US may withdraw its Qualitative Easing measures and the external economic performance is volatile. Hong Kong's tenacity can be compromised by just a mere rustle of leaves in the wind. The damage from a potential economy collapse will be much more devastating than those brought by the Asian financial crisis and the financial tsunami.

The economic structure of Hong Kong is fragile. Monopolized by finance, the city suffers high property prices, unaffordable rents and soaring commodity costs. It is increasingly difficult to do business here. The Government already has its hands full coping with a community obsessed with political fights; it simply does not have the extra capacity to handle an economic crisis. The greatest crisis of Hong Kong is that it has no sense of crisis. Shanghai and other neighbouring cities are all geared up to develop their economies, yet Hong Kong is bogged down in an inextricable mire of politics. Should a crisis befall, what is the use of universal suffrage even if we get one?

重要生字

turn white-hot:白熱化

the rustle of leaves in the wind:風吹草動

bogged down in a mire:陷入泥沼

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